EU Birth Rates Have Declined for Two Decades: What Does This Mean for Economic Growth?

Data source: Eurostat – Custom data view (2002-2025) Indicator: Crude birth rate (births per 1,000 inhabitants) Data extracted: 19 July 2026 Visual data made by the author

The demographic shift in the EU is expected to create long-term economic challenges, particularly through its effects on labour supply, public finances and productivity growth.The number of births has dropped from 10.1 births per 1,000 population in 2002 to 7.7 in 2025(Eurostat, 2026).

Eurostat statistics indicate that net migration and rising life expectancy have been responsible for the rise in population throughout Europe over the past years; nevertheless, population growth does not eliminate the challenge of an ageing population and the projected decline in the working-age population in the future (Eurostat, 2026).

The decline in birth rates can be observed in various European countries, but the extent varies across locations. Spain's crude birth rate decreased from 10.1 births per 1,000 population in 2002 to 6.5 in 2025, while Italy's declined from 9.4 to 6.0 and Greece from 9.5 to 6.3. In spite of being an EU member with a high birth rate in the past, the birth rate in Ireland also fell between these years from 15.4 to 9.9 . (Eurostat, 2026).

Lower birth rates may have an impact on the future workforce from an economic viewpoint. With fewer young people entering the workforce, countries may experience sluggish growth rate of the employment sector, an increase in competition among companies and a stronger need to invest in improvements in productivity (European Commission, 2024; OECD, 2023).

Increasingly aged and unstable populace may cause strain on public finances. Increased number of retirees may incur greater costs through pensions and pension plans. Governments are likely to respond to increasing number of retired citizens by changing their economic policies.(European Commission, 2024; OECD, 2023)

European countries have implemented different measures including childcare, maternity leaves, etc. However, the impact of current trends regarding population structure will be reflected in the economy for a long time (European Commission, 2024). Hence, Low birth rates that continue over time will cause problems on economic and demographic aspects such as the shortage of manpower, the ageing of the population and the need for more financial means coming from the budget. (Eurostat, 2026; European Commission, 2024).

References:

Eurostat. (2026). Demography of Europe Demography of Europe: population structure, ageing, births, deaths and migration statistics. European Commission.

European Commission. (2024). The 2024 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2022-2070). Brussels: European Commission.

OECD. (2023). Pensions at a Glance 2023: OECD and G20 Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.