I went back through every market people have created on HivePredict and found something that annoyed me. Of the 72 markets made by users, 41 were manual, meaning someone had to go and dig up proof before anyone got paid. At least six of those never needed a human at all. WAX, Solana and Litecoin price questions. Gold above $5,200 on a date. Silver above $65 at the end of April. A World Cup match. HivePredict can settle every one of those by itself, and people just weren't finding the way to do it.
That's on me, not them. The old create page asked for a category, a question shape, a title, a description and outcome labels before it would even show you the automatic option, and for a price market it then threw about a dozen dropdowns at you. So that's where this update starts, but there's a lot more in it: Spanish, rebuilt market pages, a new front page, better rewards for creators and a referral program.
If you haven't tried it: you predict outcomes on real-world events (crypto, sport, Hive itself), stakes go into a shared pool, and whoever called it right splits the losing side. Log in with Keychain or HiveSigner. No signup, no email.
Making a market
Create a market now opens with one question: what's it about? You get three choices.
A price. The whole market is a single sentence you fill in: Will [Bitcoin] be [at or above] [$70,000] on [Friday at 8pm]? Next to it sits the live price, with -10%, -5%, +5% and +10% buttons that set a sensible line for you. The title, rules, outcomes and category all get written for you, and it settles itself from CoinGecko, or from Yahoo Finance for gold, silver, copper and oil. Litecoin, XRP, Cardano and WAX are on the list now too, and HIVE lines can go to four decimal places, so $0.0748 is finally possible. The fancy stuff (baskets, CoinGecko categories, one coin against another) is still there under Advanced if you want it.
A match. Pick a league and you get a list of upcoming fixtures. Tap one and you're done: teams, times and the result source are all filled in, and it settles from the final score. NRL, AFL, EPL, A-League, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, Champions League and a bunch more are supported. Leagues without automatic results (UFC, F1, tennis) still work, you just settle them with proof.
Anything else. Elections, launches, Hive events, tournament winners. You write the question, say how it'll be settled and pick a category yourself. Multiple-choice markets used to get filed under Sports whether they were about sport or not, and that's gone.
Another cool tweak: if you pick "anything else" and type something like "Will Litecoin be above $80 by July?", HivePredict notices and offers to turn it into a price market that settles itself. One click and it's converted, with your coin and your line already filled in.
There's still no creation fee. You open the market with a bet of at least 1 HIVE on your side, and that's it.
HivePredict en español
The whole interface now comes in Spanish, written for Latin American readers since that's where most Spanish-speaking Hive users are. If your browser is set to Spanish it switches over on its own, and there's an English / Español switch in the footer if you want to flip it by hand. The FAQ and the category pages are translated too.
A heads up, though. A lot of the translation was machine-assisted, so if something reads clunky or plain wrong, tell me in the comments and I'll fix it. On-chain text like market titles stays in English so everyone sees the same thing.
Market pages, rebuilt
Open a market now and the first thing you see is the answer: a big number saying how much of the pool backs the leading outcome. Below that, each outcome is its own row with a bar, the amount staked and a button showing what 1 HIVE would pay out if it wins. Tap a row and it's loaded into the bet slip.
There's a single bet slip now instead of several competing boxes. On desktop it sits beside the market. On a phone it slides up from a bar at the bottom holding the two sides. The description and all the fine print (closing time, resolution, creator, stake cap) live together under Rules.
A few smaller things landed on the same page:
- Hover over the odds chart and the legend shows both sides and the time at that point.
- A Top holders tab lists the five biggest open positions on each side, with Hive avatars.
- Related markets at the bottom so you're not stuck hitting back.
- Pool sizes show a rough US dollar figure next to the HIVE or HBD amount, e.g. "56 HIVE ≈ $3". It's a guide from CoinGecko. Everything is still staked and paid in HIVE or HBD.
Avatars show up in the predictions list, comments, the activity feed and the leaderboards as well. The site felt oddly faceless before.
A front page that's about markets
The home page used to be a big "prediction markets on the Hive blockchain" pitch with the markets shoved down the bottom. Now it opens with a featured market and its chart, a list of the biggest moves in the last 24 hours, and the markets closing soonest, followed by a grid of trending markets.
Trending means something different now, too. It used to just sort by pool size, which meant a big market nobody had touched in a month sat on top forever. It now ranks by how many bets came in over the last seven days, and it's the default sort on the markets page.
The markets list itself was redesigned around the outcomes. Every card shows each outcome as a row that fills up to its share of the pool, so long team names get the whole width instead of being squashed into half a pill. Cards also show a small sparkline and a line like "Yes up 8 pts today" when the odds have actually moved.
Gold, silver, copper and oil have their own Commodities category now instead of hiding in Other.
Series pages
The weekly automatic markets are grouped into series at /markets/series. So there's a page for Bitcoin's weekly close, one for each sports league, and so on, each with its open markets, its history and its own accuracy and profit leaderboard. If you only ever bet on the weekly BTC market, you can now see who's best at it.
Getting paid for making markets
Creators now earn a cut of the pool. If you make a market and keep a position on every outcome until it resolves (at least 1 HIVE each, with your smallest side at least half your biggest), you get 1% of the final pool. That comes out of the existing 3% platform fee, so bettors pay nothing extra. The two-sided rule is there so nobody can put 1 HIVE on the losing side just to buy the commission while quietly betting the other way.
Make a few decent markets and it goes up. Once three of your markets have resolved with pools of 250 HIVE or HBD or more, you're a proven creator and earn 1.5% instead. Your profile shows which tier you're on and how close you are, and the create page tells you exactly what you still need to back to qualify.
Referrals
Your dashboard now has an invite link. When someone joins through it, for their first 90 days you get 25% of the platform fee their bets generate, and they get another 25% back as a rebate. It all comes out of the platform's share, so it costs nobody else anything, and it's paid on-chain like every other payout.
Cashing out and seeing how you're doing
Cash-out used to be sports only. It now works on every automatically settled market while betting is open, so you can bail on a crypto or commodity bet early for a penalty. Manual markets stay excluded on purpose: their result can be public before betting closes, and letting losers pull out at that point would drain the pool the winners are owed.
The dashboard also shows your profit and loss per token over time, with a chart and your recent results.
Notifications on Hive
The @hivepredict account can now comment on Hive to let you know about:
- markets you've bet on that close within a day (one daily digest, not a comment per market)
- proof requests on markets you created
- new markets from creators you follow
It's capped at four comments per person per day, and you can switch them all off in safety settings without losing the in-app bell. There's also a daily post rounding up new and busy markets, and a monthly winners post on the 1st with the top five on each leaderboard.
Disputes get a cooling-off period
If people disagree about the outcome of a manual market, meaning the proof and votes point different ways, it can't be resolved until 48 hours after the latest proof (or after its resolution time, if that's later). It gives everyone time to weigh in before any money moves, and the market page shows how long the hold has left.
That's the lot
Go and make a market. It should take about a minute now, and if it doesn't, I want to know why. Bugs, clunky Spanish and feature ideas all go in the comments.
