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Hive Improvement

Does @valueplan spending impact the price of HIVE, and by how much?

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Looking at data to answer the question: Does the @valueplan spending impact the price of HIVE, and by how much?

While this video was uploading, I realized that the last time I made a video was during the hostile takeover. So I guess it takes an existential threat for me to make a video.

So yes, I do think it's important and I hope you will engage with the topic so we can collectively figure out what we want to do. This is not simply about money (money comes and money goes, arranging one's life may be the bigger challenge), it's about the very clear trend of HIVE going to near-zero.

I'm not concerned about HIVE's price going down due to the market. If the crypto market completely collapses, so be it (although I think it's going to keep growing). But I am concerned about Hive disappearing from the scene while the crypto market continues on (with completely usual ups and downs).

So what's your take on this?

(I should also mention I have absolutely no interest in witchhunting, and I personally am not against the @valueplan projects and I'd vote for them if I didn't think the involved expenses impact the price very significantly.)

Spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgvuTh0AnL3RNb7hpn8jBgq4hg2i-FnbcnK-wJVtVEg/edit


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Comments · 15

  • @ura-soul(78)· 317d

    As has been repeated over and over already - without any kind of accountability or performance tracking, the spending from the DHF is a huge liability for Hive. What could have been a powerful tool to aid growth and to draw in more investment has seemingly not achieved either to a measurable degree. The lack of performance metrics means that no-one can really prove that the money has been meaningfully spent, yet the spending continues apace. I am not surprised to see the correlation between token price and DHF spending. Since we have no user feedback tracking on Hive, I can only presume that the connection is due to a combination of the selling of tokens paid out by the DHF and also a negative PR sentiment generated by the ongoing process. I shouldn't really need to say any more than this for those involved to recognise that urgent and radical change is necessary - but since I have been saying this for years already, with no appreciable changes being made - it seems that I am probably just wasting my time saying anything.

  • @tengolotodo(78)· 318d

    10 grand a day! For what!!!

    It is frightening how much money is thrown away by the DHF and Value Plan in particular. It is not sustainable but the whales won't change their opinions. image.png

  • @smooth(74)· 319d

    I wouldn't be singling out valueplan if your concern is the effect (on the price) of the total amount of spending. Vote up the return proposal to make it harder for lower-ranked proposals to get funded. The ones that get cut off are the ones with the least amount of stakeholder support.

    Of course, if you think VP isn't a worthwhile project, then by all means unvote it, but that didn't seem to be the case from the text of your post (didn't watch the video).

  • @davideownzall(74)· 319d

    And the bigger question is, considering the impact on hive price, is it worth it?

  • @blanchy(75)· 319d

    Great video @borislavzlatanov. Of course flooding the exchanges with that volume of Hive will decrease the value. It is nice to see just how much The question is how much would Hive be worth if there wasn't this drain? I've always found when Hive hits the $1 mark that people come back and start using Hive again but they couldn't be bothered when Hive is 18 cent etc. Is Valueplan actually doing the opposite on what it sets out to be? Offboarding people 🤣

  • @fermionico(81)· 319d

    What can I say?

    There are two indisputable truths here:

    1. The need for marketing to raise awareness is the spearhead for adoption and attracting investors.

    2. Overall expenses should not exceed a budget negotiated by governance, at a reasonable percentage without compromising the sustainability of the chain.

    Based on these two premises, a world of discussions and debates opens up that should lead us to a middle ground, in order to pursue both objectives.

    Without metrics or expense control, it is impossible to know where efforts are headed.

    But everything we have described is just common sense. Do you know what is difficult?

    Getting so many people to agree. And that is the key to any kind of discussion. Being able to reach agreements without bloodshed.

    I can only add that common sense must permeate the debate. It's that simple.

  • @uwelang(79)· 319d

    The link seems logic but can not judge it but we need to do something, no idea to be honest what - reduce spendings is for sure one but which spendings?

  • @blocktrades @smooth @theycallmedan @aggroed @oflyhigh @stoodkev @brianoflondon @bluemist @ecoinstant @roelandp @vaultec @vortac @etblink @actifit @bubke @ecency @mynewlife @hallmann @davidthompson57 @guiltyparties @fermionico @blackheart1 @elevator09 @hivecuba @lesiopm @zirochka @worldmappin @lordbutterfly @danielvehe @browery

    Sorry for tagging you, it's just that you are major voters for valueplan and I think this matter is quite important. Curious about your thoughts here.

  • @alonicus(72)· 319d

    Something I've been saying for a while is that every proposal should include a business plan with a tangible definition of what success looks like. More importantly, that with the exception of core coding proposals and ones with a well-reasoned explanation of how many new users will be bought in per HBD spent, the DHF should operate more as a loan-giver than a grant-giver.

    But I strongly believe the level of spending by the DHF on proposals with little or no tangible benefit just cannot go on. It feels like it's just a way for a circle of mutually-supportive whales to just drain all the market capital out of the project.

    I'm at the point where although I'll carry on using Hive as a social and blogging platform, I'm losing confidence in it as a part of my investment portfolio. It's too late to do much with HP this time around, but I'm seriously looking to liquidate my HBD so that I can at least get back most of the fiat I've invested in HIVE before it's too late.

  • @offgridlife(74)· 319d

    Is it true that the Value Plan pays $ 416 USD ( HBD) per hour to a few people to bring new people to Hive ?

    $10,000 USD per day ?

    Is that correct ?

    $ 36.5 million per year ?

    IMG_8568.jpeg

  • @valued-customer(75)· 320d

    It sure looks like Valueplan is killing Hive to me. There is one obvious course of action to rectify the situation: quit funding Valueplan.

    Thanks!

  • @starkerz(73)· 320d

    The DHF (which is STILL included in the hive inflation basis) is now a significant contributor to the Hive inflation basis, and we are now in death spiral territory unless the DHF (which is now HUGE compared to Hive) is removed from the inflation basis of the chain.

    Also the spending of 5 mil per year was insane a few days ago at 4x bigger than the curation rewards (the diminishing inflation over time was one of the main investment thesis into Steem and Hive - a clearly predictable, diminishing inflation attracts investors). Without reducing the daily spending cap on the DHF (which we can easily do as witnesses by the way) to bring DHF spending to a fraction of the inflation planned, predictable, diminishing curation / author rewards we are in serious trouble at these Hive prices.

    Essentially, DHF is not a predictable addition to the inflation basis, like the rest of the inflation is, and its not diminishing at these low Hive prices, like the rest of inflation is. This means that at these low prices, there is an involuntary value transfer from the pockets of investors to the pockets of people funded in the DHF. There is no sound basis for investors with this situation, and so, something needs to change ASAP. Then we can talk about HODLing

    Im not selling, as the only thing left holding hive up at the moment is the fact that DAps can't sell their hive if they want to continue to run their dapps. but at these prices, thats all that is left holding the hive price up and we are in SERIOUS inflationary death spiral territory based on factors that no matter what we do, we cant really control at this point without witnesses reducing the insane daily spending from the DHF and also forking to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain. Id say that an URGENT fork is needed at this point, particularly to get the DHF out of the inflation basis of the chain

    One of these DHF numbers needs to come down to about 2,500 to bring us back into a credible inflation basis

    image.png

  • @holoz0r(78)· 320d

    I really appreciate this logical and truly fundamental analysis.

  • @meno(80)· 320d

    I appreciate your diplomatic approach Boris, and I happen to share your tactics as a preference. I think this conversation we are having, both here and in MM needs to continue.

    It's as you say, its not about witch hunting. I'm not pointing fingers and calling people enemies or anything of the sort. I'm simply saying, and this is really the point we must be able to agree on, that we cannot continue to spend right now. The price is not helping.

    I know that GP, and he means it, is of the idea that VP is small potatoes, and that these expenses won't really make a dent. But, the data you are showing here, at the very least shows a very tight correlation between these two things.

    Now, I'm going to make the logical flaw of equating correlation with causation, but at the same time, we can't pretend everything is peachy because its not.

    Now, I realize there's a downward spiral that can happen if we kill all things that VP is doing, which is, to be perfectly clear, something I'm not advocating for. But when things are not going well in a household you make adjustments.

    At this moment, my finances are in the trash, so I'm eating at home, and most days canned food. I could say spending a little bit more won't kill me, but I'm trying to slowdown my spending, as to have reserves for real emergencies.

    Where do I see things going if we keep on this path. To me, there are two possibilities, and I don't know which one is uglier.

    We do nothing

    We toss the coin into the air and wait for something to happen.

    We could get lucky, an app could pickup momentum, maybe a world tragedy gives us an edge, because we don't censor. Something.

    I would call this choice the "prayer to the sky" - And one that I think people feel too comfortable with. I personally don't, having all my patrimony on chain.

    If we crash, if we burn, whatever infighting might be happening right now, will be child's play. There's a chance we will end up seeing a fork, people will accuse other people of attacking the chain with their choices. I mean, the word ugly does not cut it.

    We do something.

    We make a compromise. Maybe we reduce outflows to programs that we are currently running as to give some breathing room to Hive. We are out of buyers, as the traders would say. So, the little buyers that we have, which may even be us, hiveans, need to not get dunked on so hard right now.

    It could be that it doesn't really help much, I'll grant you that. But in the worse case, we are still slowing down the bleeding, the dilution of our stake.

    I also realize, there's a political cost to be paid for those who bring up these subjects, and I certainly don't want to throw mud into a spinning fan. But the alternative is possibly worse, we simply don't know.

    So I applaud your approach, and your efforts to make a solid case for a needed change.

    We need to get whales to see this video, and to have a real discussion about the current situation on hive. It's not about drama, its not about blowing things out of proportion, its about facts.

  • @gadrian(76)· 320d

    The correlation seems pretty tight. The funds from Value Plan usually end up on the market, rarely bringing back some value that can be quantified in market cap, ranking or price of HIVE.