In a way I was looking forward to do today's analysis as we know $BTC has been trending to the downside this week and I know such a shift affects the whole market, and even more small, illiquid assets, like $HIVE is. I know a lot of people are panicking right now, but I've been trading this leg down on $BTC as every move is an opportunity to make money.
Had five trades, 15.8R in total. Anyway, let's see where we stand today with $HIVE, $BTC and ETH/BTC.
It's the 15th of the month today, so half is gone already, but we still have half to go and on the monthly time frame, price is close to sweeping the current swing low at $0.0373. That's a tricky level as we have all time low (ATL) below, at $0.0327, so it's possible we revisit that level and set a new all time low. But again, it's a possibility, not a certainty, so we'll see when the candle closes.
On the weekly time frame, although the candle is only closes in about 15 hours, chances to get the 7th bearish candle are high. Honestly, I don't see how we can close in green from where we are this week. No problem, it's part of the game.
We're approaching a key level here and those who think the saying "after seven consecutive bearish candle we get a green one" is true, should be careful as we can go even lower and set a new all time low, before a reversal (IF). Remember, we trade the charts, not the sayings.
On the daily time frame, last week we had two bullish gaps at the level we're right now. Unfortunately the top one could not hold price. The lower one was rebalanced yesterday, so that's not a liquidity draw anymore, but price closed inside it and today it is attempting to close above it, which makes it support, if it happens. The move down yesterday ended in bouncing, before sweeping $0.0373. Basically the candle downside wick is at $0.0374. I wouldn't be excited about the bullish candle we have today as that low is acting as a magnet and chances for $0.0373 to be swept are high in my opinion. So I'd sit on my hands here and look for buying opportunities (if you'd like to invest) a bit lower.
On a more granular scale, the h4 chart shows we have two bearish gaps on the leg down and at the time of writing, price just tapped into the lower one. Invert these two gaps, close and hold above the top one and we can talk about bullish continuation to the upside. Till then, I'd be careful as price could be very easily rejected, in which case we will revisit the current low.
Also, after such a move, it's totally normal for price to go sideways for a while and consolidate. This can happen before, or after sweeping $0.0373, but if there's more weakness in the market, be ready for a new all time low.
$BTC on the other hand lost the 200 SMA this week and swept liquidity below $62,240. The sell-off was a bit violent for price to leave a balanced curve, so the sell side has two bearish gaps on the daily and there's a chance for today's candle to confirm a third one as well, but for that to happen, we need to wait for the candle close.
Those of you who are expecting a sharp bounce here and for price to shoot up and blow the roof, you should look at the chart above and focus on the blue areas I've highlighted. After such a move usually comes a consolidation period, which in plain English means sideways move, but the question here is, if this is the bottom or not. So I'd be careful here as there's lower as well.
ETH/BTC has lost support, swept liquidity below 0.027593 and is retesting the bullish gap as we speak. Let's see if we get a bounce and the pair can reclaim support again, or we go lower. Important levels are marked on the chart.
Next week we have three red folder days, but again, as you can see, these economic events are not the only factors to consider when counting on volatility, so stay safe.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
Do your own research, make your own decisions as you're taking the risk.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Come trade with me on Bybit.
AI generated and AI assisted comments will be ignored.
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