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#hive

Are the bulls back earlier than expected this cycle? What are your thoughts?

@fredrikaa@fredrikaa (74)1299d

It's become a thing in crypto to expect bulls and bear markets coming and going in 3-year cycles. But stats and trends are only true until they're not. Prices go up and down when more people decide to buy than sell and vice versa, irrespective of past trends. So are we already inside a new bull cycle?

Bull market by worldcoin peakd fredrikaa.jpeg

Is the next crypto bull market already here? image source: worldcoin

We all witnessed HIVE rocket up 40-50% this weekend. This also comes on the back of a pretty decent rise in the value of Bitcoin, having stayed steady at about $16,500 for a while during Christmas and new year's eve.

There were some discussions on @thejohalfiles’s post earlier asking if people thought Bitcoin would dip even lower before the turn of the year. My position was that I thought the dip we had seen after the whole shitshow with FTX and SBF, the market had overreacted. Thus, I said I would not be surprised to see at least some recovery. However, I was a bit surprised to see just how quickly it soared back up beyond $20k, having looked a lot like a stable coin at $19k for months prior to the FTX scandal.

That said, I think the reason why some heavy hitters felt the urge to load up on BTC now is the same as why I decided to buy back HIVE 2 months ago at $0,3 / 1700 SATS: Regardless of whether the price keeps on going lower or not, now is still a relatively low price. And IMO, it is better to secure a position at a relatively low price given a strong belief of future returns, than to risk missing out waiting for “the perfect bottom”. AT least that was my logic when I powered up 8k HIVE two months ago.

I don't care if the price dropped a little bit lower after I bought it back (from about $0.3 to $2.5), I only care that I got back in at what I believe was a low price compared to where I think we're going. Likely, people who have been buying Bitcoin the past month have been thinking the same.

So what are your thoughts? Was this just a small bump in the road further down? Or is the market now more mature than it was back when it followed predictable cycles? Anyways, I'll continue to do what I do, and stack the few tokens I believe in while powering up and saving more HBD :).

Comments · 23

  • @shortsegments(78)· 110d

    I wrote a proposal for a Hive Community Bank capitolized by the DHF but belonging to the community. #374. The strongest points are that HCB gives HIVE holders liquidity without forcing them to sell, which preserves long-term upside, may avoid immediate taxable sale events, and protects borrowers from flash-crash liquidations by using yearly reviews instead of twitchy real-time oracle triggers. The model is also easy to understand: borrow up to 50% of collateral value, keep the HIVE powered up in custody, pay a clear upfront fee plus low annual cost, and let borrowers repay later while keeping any future appreciation. Its best selling point is psychological as much as financial: it turns HIVE from “an asset I must sell when I need cash” into “productive collateral I can hold through cycles.”

    Link: https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@shortsegments/my-dhf-proposal-hive-comunity-bank-a-permanent-source-of-loans-for-the-hive-comunity-2ul Thank you @shortsegments

  • @hivewatchers(73)· 236d

    Hello, Just to let you know that I have noticed that your account has been typosquatted by a known scammer.

    image.png

  • @calebhorlar47(9)· 302d

    Grea

  • @calebhorlar47(9)· 302d

    Grea

  • @calebhorlar47(9)· 302d

    Grea

  • @smartdan(12)· 362d

    Very interesting

  • @pizzabot(60)· 432d

    PIZZA!

    $PIZZA slices delivered: @daddydog(2/5) tipped @fredrikaa

    Come get MOONed!

  • @daddydog(73)· 432d

    !PIZZA

  • @preshzinosongz(65)· 597d

    We are ready for this

  • @weed.dispenser(51)· 802d

    @fredrikaa!

    @bpcvoter3 passed you the virtual joint!
    If you do not want to receive these comments, please reply with !STOP
  • @michelmake(65)· 1001d

    Hey @fredrikaa, I hope you're doing well! I just read steempress update. Seems like the end of a long cooperation. Will you remain active here on the chain in the future?

  • @pocketechange(74)· 1201d

    If you're interested in "my version" of the coming U.S. Monetary Correction and the New Product Line of our "Circulating" Silver and Gold Coins, feel free to come visit my posts...

  • @chrisrice(68)· 1203d

    Hi Fred,

    May I kindly know if EXXP still works like it used to?

    I am endorsing it to a local blogger here.

    Thank you.

    ~ Chris Rice Open Source : D.Buzz

  • @hivebuzz(74)· 1271d

    Congratulations @fredrikaa! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain And have been rewarded with New badge(s)

    You distributed more than 29000 upvotes.
    Your next target is to reach 30000 upvotes.

    You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

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  • @bitcoinflood(80)· 1283d

    I kind of have a feeling that people are losing faith in FIAT and starting to move more into crypto. But also with the crack down on stablecoins I also feel like people are moving out of them back into crypto like bitcoin

  • @reko(70)· 1284d

    Analysis of Crypto Bull Market Cycles

    Introduction

    In this post, the author discusses the recent price surge in HIVE and Bitcoin, and questions whether the crypto market is already in a new bull cycle. The author also shares their thoughts on buying at a relatively low price in anticipation of future returns, rather than waiting for the perfect bottom.

    Crypto Bull Market Cycles

    • It has become a common trend in crypto to expect bulls and bear markets to occur in 3-year cycles.
    • However, past trends may not necessarily hold true, as prices are influenced by supply and demand factors.
    • The author questions whether the current price surge indicates a new bull cycle.

    Recent Price Surge in HIVE and Bitcoin

    • HIVE saw a 40-50% increase in value over the weekend, while Bitcoin has also been steadily rising since the end of 2021.
    • The author suggests that the recent price surge may be due to heavy hitters buying in at a relatively low price in anticipation of future returns.

    Author's Perspective

    • The author shares their own experience of buying back HIVE at what they believed was a relatively low price, even though the price may have dropped further after their purchase.
    • The author believes that it is better to secure a position at a relatively low price in anticipation of future returns, rather than waiting for the perfect bottom.
    • The author plans to continue buying and powering up the few tokens they believe in.

    Overall, the author questions whether the crypto market is more mature now than in the past when it followed predictable cycles. They also share their personal perspective on buying at a relatively low price in anticipation of future returns.

    I'm most certainly gonna invest regularly in crypto going forward and specifically with focus on the Hive blockchain. I agree with @fredrikaa, it's time to power up baby ! :D

    Reko_3.png

  • @awesomianist(65)· 1295d

    If you're looking at the macro side of things, markets is definitely bouncing back not because things are looking good but more like it has to - after all that's happened in the past 1 year.

    I believe most of us had been here during the last 1-2 cycle that can kinda recognize how sentiments are like prior to bull rallies / selloff and I bet what's happening right now feels familiar to some of us.

    on the Hive side of things I think we're good, liquidity looks pretty much the same as it has been for the past couple of years and I am confident Hive is one of those altcoins that will stick around even if its no longer in the mainstream spotlight, like so many bitcoin forks and ICO coins that stuck around even after narratives changes.

    Screenshot_14.png

    If I have to guess, Hive will probably float with BTC / ETH price and go up in dollar terms if the market do rallies.

  • @tobetada(77)· 1299d

    the next weeks will be the test; if w can make a higher low the bull is back :)

  • @niallon11(77)· 1299d

    It's hard to know but after 6 years on hive I'm happy to buy at under 50c and the ame goes for Bitcoin under 20K.

    To me those are both sale prices and ones that will make a nice gain in the next couple of years if not sooner.

    I don't know where the market is sitting but I know where my value is going to be held.

    Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

  • @india-leo(59)· 1299d

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  • @preparedwombat(79)· 1299d

    I’m not really concerned about the timing of a bull market. If at all possible, my plan is to never power down. Sure, if there’s huge run up, skim off some liquid $HIVE earned from delegations and maybe some HBD. But never touch the HP. For when I die, my wife already has access to my keys.

  • @steevc(80)· 1299d

    I saw @demotruk say that the $HIVE pump was down to people trying to cash in on $HBD. It's still a lot of money to throw around. I expected the price to fall again, but I always hope it settles a little higher than before. This sort of thing may get more eyes on what is going on here. We have so many cool projects, but don't seem to get much media coverage. Just seem to get by on word of mouth, but that is slow.

    At least by buying of a few thousand $HIVE at the start of the year is looking like a good move so far. I just want to grow my HP.

  • @cryptosimplify(73)· 1299d

    I honestly don't know what to think.

    Rationally it seems strange to me that we are already in a bull cycle because inflation is very high and people clearly spend more money than before on essential goods.

    However, with the FED saying that it is already beginning to be visible that it will be able to escape the recession, it makes people more comfortable to make investments.

    Currently I continue to look at everything very carefully so as not to have a huge descent and get caught in the middle.