It’s been a while since my last big update. I sold the majority of my HIVE above $0.40, SPS above $0.01, and my entire card collection over a year ago. Those were good exits in retrospect. I’m now left with a very small “lottery ticket” position: 100k SPS and 6k HIVE. After following the project closely, my view has only hardened:
- Daily battles stabilized in the 40k–55k range (from 300k+ peaks).
- The player tail never fattened — onboarding is still painful and retention is weak.
- SPS rich list remains extremely concentrated and continues to get worse as the price declines. Revenue and social engagement rely on the same small group of whales.
- X engagement is minimal (~60k followers but replies come from the usual 10–15 familiar names).
- Matt (Yabapmatt) has been virtually invisible yet diplomatic about it ('focusing on his one true love--game design'). Dave is now clearly running point.
- The DAO deal + full IP transfer looks exactly like risk externalization and can-kicking-- continuing the pattern. $2M/year fixed runway for the company while downside stays with token holders.
- Hive and Splinterlands continue to drag each other down in a slow, mutual decline.
This isn’t a collapse mind you — it’s classic managed decline / zombie mode. The project can limp along for years on the dedicated remnant and DAO treasury, but broad revival would require an altseason miracle that shows no signs of arriving. I’m not mad at the team. They built something special in its time. But the data is the data. I respect the whales who keep catching the falling knife — some of them have been here since the beginning and clearly still believe. I’m just personally out of conviction for putting more capital in-- believe me I thought about it. My tiny remaining bag is purely for curiosity at this point. Curious to hear where others are at in 2026!? I don't even know what to say about HIVE, hadn't loooked at the price in months...
