When Could The Next Cycle Top Be?
The last few weeks price has been pushing to the downside once again - but ever since March BTC and the crypto market has somewhat stabilized. We got a bit of a newer low, but nothing dramatic really. It still seems that the high 50s could have been the lows for this BTC cycle. If so, we could be looking at a gradual upward movement over the next 2-3 years. But the time frame has gotten me a bit confused actually. I looked at the BTC chart in more detail again, and we can see a clear pattern as to when the cycle usually tops out: it is around 500-550 days after the halving event. The next halving event is scheduled to be at around April of 2028. So... that would put the next top in late 2029. Until now I have been expecting that date to be late 2028. The "problem" with a later date, however, is that this would imply an extremely prolonged upward phase, around 8-9 months longer, unless the current correction is prolonged (which wouldn't be in line with previous corrections). In other words, something has to give. This cycle is already different to previous ones.
Here we can see up and down phases (green and red) that have shifted in length somewhat. Overall the upward phase of the last cycle has been around 200 days longer than previous ones. The correction might be somewhat shorter, however. If the pattern persists, the correction could last until fall/winter of this year. We would get an equally long upward phase if the correction continues until the end of this year and the upward phase lasts until around Q4 of 2028. The "problem" with a 2028 date, however, is that this would only be around 275 days after the halving event. So far, as can be seen in the date ranges shown, they have been close to around 500 days - much longer. In other words, if the halving pattern persists this should be Q4 of 2029.
A neat pattern which I have seen over the years is that we can quite accurately predict the top for a cycle by drawing a trend line of the lows/supports of the previous cycle. We can also draw a uncertainty range around it (purple lines and area). This gives us a target of ~600k for 2028 and ~1M for 2029. Those do not seem to be unreasonable targets.
Conclusions
Yes, we are still early for the next phase. But it seems the cycles just continue without much fanfare. While they are bound to change somewhat, their basic pattern still seem to be very regular. If so, I think we are close to entering a 2-3 year long bull phase and perhaps it will once more end with a parabolic run towards the end (contrary to last cycle). For ALT hodlers, the picture overall is bleaker since there hasn't been an ALT season for many years. Will this time be different?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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