Has The Bear Market Ended?
If the bear market is indeed already over, then HBD managed to just barely stay under the 30% debt limit. As a result, HBD has been more or less stable over the last year - at least never significantly falling long under its $1 peg. This is good news, since it means that HBD has managed to stay at peg for two consecutive bear markets. The last time it did fall below peg was as SBD before the hard fork. Since then we got several changes to its tokenomics which so far have proven to be beneficial. However, getting as close as 1% to the crucial 30% debt limit has been a very close call and it certainly could have gone the other way. In other words, we got lucky... A depegged HBD would have entailed all sorts of problems. For now at least, it seems we are out of the woods. I do not think that Hive will fall below the current support price of around 3.5 cents. ALTs have finally broken out of a multi year long down trend.
We can also see that the HBD savings share is at around 70% and has declined over the last year. In late 2025 we had around 9M HBD in savings at around 15% interest. This has now come down to around 6.3M and is more sustainable with 10% interest.
It's good that interest has come down over the last years. Hive's price simply can't handle an inflated HBD supply at the moment. Of course this means that HBD cannot really grow and get adopted. It's MC is way too low for that. I guess a possibility is that it could grow with an increase in Hive's price. But that would have to be sustainably well above 30-50 cents imo.
Conclusion
Seems like we got lucky... and that isn't really how we wanted this to play out. But it seems we will get another chance to add more value to our chain until the next bear market strikes. Personally, I would like to see HBD's interest to go up again once the debt ratio is back under 10% again. It's reputation as a safe and valuable stable coin still hasn't caught on in the crypto sphere. Although I think with each passing year that chance should in theory grow...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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