Ten Days of Auction

KROWL BRIGHTBANE (the card or item doesn't matter)

Welcome to the exciting, and sometimes baffling, world of auctions! Whether you're trying to win a vintage watch online, bid for ad space on Google, or buy your dream home, one thing is certain: you cannot wing it.

An auction is not just a game of chance. It is a strategic landscape where your knowledge of the rules, your assessment of value, and your psychological control directly impact whether you walk away with a prize or an expensive case of "Winner’s Curse."

This post is your ultimate playbook, breaking down the most common auction types, the fundamental bidding strategies, and the math behind making the perfect offer.

Before we talk about how to bid, we need to know the field of play. Different auctions operate under drastically different rules, and your strategy must adapt to the specific type of auction you are participating in.

We can categorize the most common auctions into four main types:

Types of Auctions

Auction Type	Price Direction	Bidding Method	Key Feature
English	Ascending	Open / Sequential	Price starts low and rises as bidders outbid each other.
Dutch	Descending	Open / Instant	Price starts high and drops until the first bidder accepts.
First-Price Sealed-Bid	Fixed	Private / One-shot	Bidders submit hidden bids simultaneously; highest bid wins and pays their bid.
Vickrey (Second-Price)	Fixed	Private / One-shot	Bidders submit hidden bids; highest bid wins but pays the second-highest price.

The current Splinterlands Auction that we will be talking about is an English type Auction, with progressive higher prices and transparent bids.

The Core Elements of Bidding Strategy

Regardless of the auction type, every successful bidding strategy rests on three foundational pillars:

Pillar 1:

Understanding Your Valuation (v) vs. Market Price: Your value (v) is the maximum amount you are genuinely willing to pay for the item. This must be a number you calculate before the auction starts, based on research and your own private assessment. Private Value: Only you know how much you truly want it.Common Value: All bidders are trying to estimate the item's true worth (e.g., an oil field or a resale item), but everyone’s estimates differ slightly. The common value model is much harder and is prone to errors.

Pillar 2:

Fighting the Psychology of the "Winner’s Curse": The Winner's Curse is a phenomenon where the winning bidder pays more for an item than its true worth. This typically happens in common value auctions. If ten people estimate an item is worth between $$1,000$ and $$2,000$, and everyone submits their true estimate as a bid, the person with the most optimistic (i.e., most over-estimated) assessment will win.Crucial Rule: To avoid the Winner's Curse, you must assume that if you win, everyone else had a lower estimate than you. Your bid must factor in this statistical probability by "shading" your bid downwards.

Pillar 3:

Managing Information (Signaling): In open auctions like English and Dutch, you receive continuous information.English: You know who is active and at what price. You may gain confidence or see signs of desperation.Dutch: The dropping price reveals information. The longer everyone waits, the lower everyone’s perceived value might be.

Typical Strategies

In English type auction, following the usual strategies:

Tactic	How It Works	Best Used When	Risk
Jump Bidding	Submit a bid significantly higher than the minimum increment (e.g., jumping from $100 to $200).	You want to signal strong commitment and discourage tentative bidders.	You might pay more than necessary if competitors were about to drop out anyway.
Sniping / Last-Second Bidding	Place your bid at the absolute last second (common in timed online auctions).	Online auctions without anti-sniping extensions.	Technical failure or latency might cause your bid to miss the deadline.
Patience (Incremental)	Wait until the end of the bid increment clock and bid the minimum required.	You want to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible.	Allows hesitant competitors time to rationalize higher bids.

In Splinterlands, most commonly, the sniping wins. The only way to block sniping is by jump bidding where you typically always overpay.

Example from a Real World Auction

Yesterday the first of the KROWL BRIGHTBANE Black Foil Arcane card sold for 167 auction mark (AMs) to rustbow. At current price, and market is thin for Auction Marks;

1 AM = $1.294, @vugtis had 100 available for sale

so 167 AM = $216 (likely more, unless you have them already)

These are some of the lowest priced Black Foil Arcanes common cards on the market...

So $80 - $ 250. Based on this, the winner of the last auction already overpaid a bit. Now, it is understood, not all cards the made the same, but still, it is expected that the BFA auctions typically overpay.

Here is the table for the bidding war and the associated plot:

Phase	Timeframe	Price (AMs)	Key Competitors	Dynamic / Strategy Observed
Discovery & Anchoring	Aug 28, 1:38 PM – 7:02 PM	3 – 31	@babypuppy, @dawgstar, @chiefquimbysdad	Low-stakes probing. Multiple buyers enter minimal early bids to bookmark the item or test for an unmonitored auction.
Mid-Tier Shakeout	Aug 28, 8:16 PM – Aug 29, 4:45 AM	50 – 105	@dafiz, @bravetofu, @rusbow	Filtering casuals. Bidding jumps widen to 10–15 point increments. Early bidders drop out as price anchors above 50.
The Core Duel	Aug 29, 9:00 AM – 10:59 AM	106 – 167	@dafiz vs. @rusbow (with @bravetofu)	Late escalation. Bidding velocity accelerates rapidly into a two-way psychological battle, driving 36%+ of total price growth in 2 hours.

There you have it. I think I am willing to overpay!