Today is a special day people. Not because it's Sunday and I get to do another technical analysis post, but because it's the 1st of the month and we have the monthly candle freshly closed, so let's see where we stand with the assets and pairs, after the recent Binance hack, that shook the crypto world this week.
On the monthly time frame, we got a bearish candle last month, as expected and the candle closed below the 200 SMA as well. It's barely been a few hours in the new month, so there's not much to say here till the candle close, except that at the time of writing, price is trading at the level of the monthly close.
Immediate levels to watch are $0.0373 on the downside and $0.0663 on the upside, which is confirmed as the swing high now.
On the weekly time frame, we got a doji last week and at the time of writing, price is trading above the bullish OB. This week price wicked down, close to the OB, but didn't touch it and bounced off. This is on Binance, but on other exchanges the situation might be slightly different. Anyway, for now, it looks like the OB is holding nicely. Levels to watch on this time frame are the same as at the previous one. The sell side is pretty balanced, so there's not much to stop price and if we get a reversal here, $0.0663 is the next liquidity pool to keep an eye on.
On the daily time frame, price has been nicely holding at the top and above the bullish gap, marked with green on my chart. Then the Binance hack happened on the 29th October, which was Thursday and caused price to drop down to the bottom of the gap, then wick down below the gap the next day. However, price managed to get back inside the gap and it is trading in the golden pocket, which coincides with the bullish gap, as we speak.
It's Sunday, so unless there will be another security incident (I hope not) or something major geo-political event takes place, the weekend will be boring. Next week it's possible to see another wick down to sweep $0.0441 and if we get a bounce back above the gap, turning mid-range and the 200 SMA into support is the next goal for the bulls. If we don't get a bounce here or a bit lower, then I'd keep an eye on $0.0373.
If I am to use S/R levels, you can see that the current one is respected and acting as support. This level has to hold though.
On a more granular scale, the h4 time frame chart shows how price rebalanced almost entirely the bearish gap happened during the hack bounced back above local support, which I consider to be $0.0469. There's a bullish gap on the buy side of the curve, so it's possible for price to retest it in the upcoming period and if the gap can't defend price, we could see $0.0441 swept. On the upside, we have relative equal highs at $0.048, so that would be my immediate focus, in case of a bounce.
$BTC is not an exception either, you can see the effect of the hack on the daily chart. The drop continued the next day as well, price touched my S/R area and bounced off. At the time of writing, $BTC is trading below last week's range. The drop left a bearish gap on the way down, which is actin as resistance now.
A retest of support and sweep of $74,919 next week would not be a bad idea, before we move on to the upside. The S/R level around $74,919 has to hold though.
This ETH/BTC chart is a real beauty. Price retested the S/R level this week, as I anticipated in my last report and bounced off really nicely. There's no momentum just yet and we could see a sideways PA next week, which after such a drop is normal. Get back above the 200 SMA (blue line) and we're good to go.
Next week we have two red folder days in total. Congressional elections on Tuesday, which happens every 2 year and unemployment rate on Friday.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
Do your own research, make your own decisions as you're taking the risk.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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