This week things have started to move. As i said in my post yesterday, there's not much to celebrate yet, as on high time frame nothing has been confirmed yet, but we got some movement and plenty of opportunities to make good money. When there's volatility, there's an opportunity too, if you know how to play it.
Today is the 23th of August, which means we have one week left from the month, so let's see how we stand today and what to look out for next week.
With the volatility we got this week, on the monthly time frame, $HIVE has managed to make a move to the upside, but could not reach the bearish gap, which is sitting slightly below the monthly order block (OB) and price is trading around the monthly open as we speak.
The current candle is closing in about a week, as I mentioned above, so nothing is set in stone yet, no trend reversal has been confirmed, so the possibility to sweep ATL at this point is still there.
The game play is still the same, either ATL on the downside, or the bearish gap and OB on the upside.
This time you see a blue line on my chart, that has not been there before. That's the 200 SMA, which means 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)
The 200-day SMA is often seen as a gauge of market momentum, acting as support when prices trade above it and resistance when they fall below.
At this point it is an important indicator, so I'm going to keep it on my chart.
As long as price is below the 200 SMA, it means $HIVE is in a structural downtrend.
On the weekly time frame, this week price managed to rebalance the bearish gap, but got rejected. The candle closes in about 13 hours, so nothing is set in stone at this point, but even with the rejection, there's a chance we close the week with a bullish engulfing candle. This would be good news, but to have some hope for a bullish move, first we need price to close above the gap and hold. If not, there's always the chance for $HIVE to sweep ATL.
On the daily time frame, price set a swing low this week and had a nice move to the upside, till it hit resistance. Basically it rebalanced the bearish gap, then sold off. The grey box is a strong resistance area.
At the time of writing, price has retested the bullish gap, marked with green on my chart, bounced off and is trading above mid-range. Basically it is between support and resistance.
So many got excited by the move we got this week. I'm not saying it wasn't good, but in order to see a trend reversal, price has to close above the grey box and hold. Then we can talk.
$BTC had a nice move to the upside this week, hit mid-range on Friday and lost momentum. This is normal, no reason to get alarmed as nothing goes up forever. The good thing is, $BTC managed to get back above the 200 SMA on Wednesday and is still trading above it. A retest of the 200 MA is still in the cards.
On HTF, not much has changed, for price to turn bullish, we need it to close above and hold the $82K level.
ETH/BTC got back above the 200 SMA about a month ago and had a very nice move to the upside on Wednesday this week. Rebalanced the bearish gap, but could not turn it into support as that's a strong resistance zone. At the time of writing, it is retesting the bullish gap left by the violent move to the upside on Wednesday.
Next week we have two red folder days, one day with data release. I'm not going to say be careful as volatility is coming, because it looks like it's going to come anyway. However, stay safe and protect your capital.
Another thing I'd like to announce is that most likely I'm going to post some short, daily updates on $HIVE, if things start to move, but on my alt account. If you're interested, you can follow my alt, @erikahfit.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
Do your own research, make your own decisions as you're taking the risk.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Come trade with me on Bybit.
If you're a newbie, you may want to check out these guides:
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- Community List And Why It Is Important To Post In The Right Community
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- About Dust Vote And Hive Reward Pool, by libertycrypto27
