Today I made the decision I've been contemplating for some time. Up until now, I've been using Leofinance community for my weekly technical analysis, as it was designed for finance and crypto, when it started. For some time it was indeed for crypto and finance related topics, but then a lot of 💩 happened and I don't want my name or my posts there. Unfortunately the community is run by a known scammer who's harming the chain and the community is full of plagiarism and AI.
Every week I write my analysis myself. I take the charts, take every time frame draw up what I have to and write the text. The only tool I use is Tradingview, my brain and knowledge, even if some a**hole, who has never traded in his life says this can be written by AI. Yes, it can, but it isn't. It's my work. Anyway, I hope the pub can be my home from now on, for my analysis, which I do with dedication each week, so let's get to it.
On the monthly time frame, price is still below the monthly open and the 200 SMA as well. There are 6 days left till the current, monthly candle close, so we have to wait till then, but as things stand right now, most likely we're going to get a bearish candle. Levels to watch are the same as before, $0.0373 on the downside and $0.0988 on the upside, if some unimaginable miracle happens.
On the weekly time frame, price touched the 200 SMA this week, but sold off and came back to the weekly open. There are still 9 hours to go till the candle close, which means price can move in every direction and write a different candle, but so far we have a doji with a long upside and a small wick on the downside. After 3 consecutive bearish weeks, a neutral one is already a good sign.
At this point, from my perspective, a wick down to retest the weekly order block (OB) at $0.044 is possible. If we get a bounce at that level, I'd be looking at $0.0663 on the upside, if we get bullish momentum too. If $0.044 doesn't hold, a sweep of $0.0373 could be possible.
On the daily time frame, price retested the bullish gap last Sunday. Today we've seen a spike to the upside, price went above the 200 SMA but sold off and it is close to retesting the gap again as we speak. Today's rejection clearly shows price is not ready to bounce yet, so a sweep of $0.0469 is likely in my opinion. The ideal scenario would be to get a bounce after the sweep, but we have to be realistic here. If the gap doesn't hold price, we can see a sweep of $0.0434.
In case we get a bounce at around this level and some momentum, closing above the 200 SMA is crucial, after which comes the inversion of the two bearish gaps, marked with yellow.
If I remove the gaps and look at support and resistance levels (S/R), you can see price is above support. This level has to hold.
On the h4 time frame, last week, at the time of writing, price was retesting the h4 OB. Yesterday we had another retest and today price has retested it and is right above it.
The game play here is the same as on the previous time frame. I'd keep an eye on $0.0469 and on $0.0539 on the upside, if we get a bounce.
On the daily time frame, $BTC retested the 0.618 level yesterday and is trading at the top of the daily bullish gap. This level has to hold.
ETH/BTC lost the 200 SMA unfortunately and it is heading to retest support (grey box) again. That level has to hold.
Next week we have some important data announced, plus FOMC, so I'd expect some volatility on Wednesday and Thursday.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
Do your own research, make your own decisions as you're taking the risk.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Come trade with me on Bybit.
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