This was the 2nd year I have been keeping a personal blog sharing previews, many of my personal bets while keeping close track of my results. In a similar way to last season (See Regular Season 2017-2018 Review Post), I will look back now to make a personal analysis on the overall results along with the way of going about things in general.
I did again get a positive return overall this year and managed to keep the streak alive of not having a single losing season the last 10+ years handicapping the Belgian league and teams. Last year I had an exceptional +7.22% ROI on 821 bets and it's always a danger after such a season to have something of a correction so I was on high alert. I finished the Regular Season with a massive 1097 bets good for +2.61% ROI. While this is a bit below the longer term expectations, I can very much live with it since my overall turnover went up a bit. One of the most difficult things to nail is the Quality vs Quantity ratio.
- Only having a few bets with good ROI won't get you far since you always need to keep proper bankroll management.
- Having too many bets will always put a lot of pressure on your ROI.
Since I am following everything closely and am handicapping everything myself which allows to always get 1st hand odds, I don't mind so much my rather aggressive volume style. There have been a lot of things I did right, but I have also a lot of working points that I need to improve upon to keep my edge over this market
The Good
Consistency: If there is anything the works it is to be extremely consistent and that is exactly what I have done all season long. Keeping a personal blog is something I do for myself in the first place because it forces me to keep a very tight routine in both handicapping all the games and keeping myself accountable by sharing the actual results each week even if they are bad! I do believe that these things alone make up a big part of being able to make money off the betting markets. Both Steemit and Scorum are excellent platforms to do this while potentially get a bit of extra income stream and more stability.
Discipline: All season long I stayed extremely disciplined in handicapping, watching all the games and never going crazy on my bankroll management. I went up in stakes when my bankroll allowed it after an upswing and moved down again after having to use some of my betting earnings to pay bills while suffering a long downswing. This kind of discipline is key and I very much got it down after all these years betting.
Always Getting Best Odds on the Market: Being able to shop for the best odds on the market is of vital importance when you want to come out on top. I do feel I managed to get my timing quite right when to take early bets and when to take late bets. Using Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro also makes a huge difference when it comes down to systematically being able to get the best odds on the market since their platform offers me to take the best odds available on different bookmakers with 1 click. I have been using them myself for many years and can highly recommend to all players that are more serious about sports betting. Check out my Sportmarket Pro Review Here
Having these 3 factors down is something everyone can do and make up a huge part of actually making money in the long run from Sports Betting. There is no real talent needed for this and everyone who wants should be able to do this.
Needed Improvements
Finding New Betting Angles: I do feel I counted way too much on my general betting knowledge I build up in the past and that the markets are being set much more tight based on this. Finding new angles and potential betting spots is something that can take up a lot of time, not doing this won't make a big difference in the short run but the bill will be presented at some point for not doing it. This will be one of my big working points during the playoffs and next season.
Taking Higher Average Odds Especially near the end of the season, I put way too much priority on not getting too much variance against which made me take much more 1.8 type odds instead of the 2.3+ odds that generally provide a much better return. Neglecting my feeling thar rather wants to go for the safer option is something I will continue to work on.
Results
| League | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Belgian Jupiler League | 891 | +3.25% ROI |
| Belgian Teams (Europe, Cup) | 206 | -0.08% ROI |
| Total | 1097 | +2.61% ROI |
Previous seasons always showed better results on the 'Belgian Team' bets, not it resulted in a small loss that most likely is caused by short term variance.
| League | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Tiny Stake Bets | 254 | +7.32% ROI |
| Small Stake Bets | 530 | +1.66% ROI |
| Medium Stake Bets | 188 | +1.92% ROI |
| Full Stake Bets | 18 | +19.93% ROI |
| Limited Stake bets | 108 | -4.37% ROI |
I rarely take full stakes on one single bet both because limits often don't allow this and the fact that I often split my bets between different options while leaving some room for extra live bets. The 18 bets I took full force did show great results though. It is the 2nd year in a row that the smallest stake bets really crush it. This is probably because most of these bets have very high odds or are bets where I just take that tiny bit extra live while already having a considerable amount in.
| League | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Jupiler League Pre-Game | 235 | +3.97% ROI |
| Jupiler League Live | 487 | +2.07% ROI |
| Jupiler League Corners | 170 | +5.36% ROI |
| - | - | - |
| Belgian Teams Pre | 48 | +11.86% ROI |
| Belgian Teams Live | 107 | +1.28% ROI |
| Belgian Teams Corners | 50 | -23.79% ROI |
Corners have always been a strong market for me and this is the first year they resulted in an overall small loss. I do remember a couple of European matches where I was in quite big over multiple bets that got crushed. I still have high confidence that the corners market despite the higher juice should be quite easy to beat.
| Odds | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30+ | 133 | +5.40% ROI |
Pretty much every season I manage to get a solid ROI when taking higher odds and this was again the case this season.
Season 2018-2019 Gif
2017-2019 Results
The longer-term results since the start of the 2017-2018 season now show a solid +4.71% ROI after 2102 Bets running very close the pink expected profit line.
BTC Betting Season 2018-2019
| Date | Bet | mBTC | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2018 | Club Brugge -2 | 10 | 2.370 | +13.70 |
| 11/08/2018 | Stvv vs Lokeren 1H Under 1 | 10 | 2.093 | +10.93 |
| 16/08/2018 | Lech vs Genk 1st Half Over 1 | 10 | 1.918 | +9.180 |
| 18/08/2018 | Stvv vs Waasland 1st Half Under 1 | 10 | 2.142 | -10.00 |
| 18/08/2018 | Kortrijk vs Oostende Under 3 | 10 | 1.847 | +0.000 |
| 26/08/2018 | AA Gent vs Lokeren Under 3 | 10 | 1.893 | +0.000 |
| 30/08/2018 | Racing Genk TT Over 1.5 | 10 | 1.950 | +9.500 |
| 31/08/2018 | Club Brugge -0.5 | 10 | 2.216 | +12.16 |
| 01/09/2018 | Stvv vs Oostende 1H Under 1 | 10 | 2.261 | +12.61 |
| 01/09/2018 | Kortrijk vs Genk Over 3.5 | 10 | 2.469 | +14.69 |
| 15/09/2018 | Oostende vs Cercle 1H Under 1 | 10 | 2.162 | +11.62 |
| 16/09/2018 | Sint-Truiden +1 | 10 | 1.954 | +9.54 |
| 21/09/2018 | Kv Kortrijk +0.5 | 10 | 2.231 | +12.31 |
| 22/09/2018 | Lokeren vs Moeskroen 1H Under 1 | 10 | 2.112 | +11.12 |
| 29/09/2018 | Racing Genk -1.5 | 10 | 2.043 | +10.43 |
| 29/09/2018 | Lokeren +1 | 10 | 1.854 | +0.00 |
| 04/10/2018 | Racing Genk -1 | 10 | 2.469 | -10 |
| 20/10/2018 | Sint-Truiden +0.5 | 10 | 1.832 | -10 |
| 20/10/2018 | Kortrijk vs Stvv 1H U1 | 10 | 2.301 | -10 |
| 21/10/2018 | Zulte-Waregem +0.5 | 10 | 1.984 | -10 |
| 27/10/2018 | Lokeren vs Oost 1H U1 | 10 | 2.073 | +10.73 |
| 30/10/2018 | Charleroi vs Stvv U2.5 | 10 | 2.050 | +10.50 |
| 03/11/2018 | Kortrijk +0.5 | 10 | 2.172 | -10 |
| 04/11/2018 | Zulte-Waregem +0 | 10 | 2.628 | -10 |
| 08/11/2018 | Krasnodar -0.5 | 10 | 1.810 | +8.10 |
| 25/11/2018 | Gent vs Antwerp 1H U1 | 10 | 2.013 | +10.30 |
| 25/11/2018 | Lokeren +0.5 | 10 | 1.901 | -10 |
| 01/12/2018 | Charleroi vs Cercle 1H U1 | 10 | 2.192 | +0.00 |
| 02/12/2018 | Racing Genk -0.25 | 10 | 1.900 | +9.00 |
| 15/12/2018 | Moeskroen +0 | 10 | 2.638 | -10 |
| 9/01/2019 | Lokeren +0.5 | 10 | 2.003 | -10 |
| 20/01/2019 | Moes vs Oost 1H U1 | 10 | 1.983 | -10 |
| 09/02/2019 | Cha vs Oost 1H U1 | 10 | 2.092 | +10.92 |
| 10/02/2019 | AA Gent vs Moeskroen BTS | 10 | 1.820 | +8.20 |
| 17/02/2019 | Moeskroen Team Total Over 1.5 | 10 | 1.880 | +8.80 |
| 23/02/2019 | Waasland +0 | 10 | 2.737 | -10 |
| 24/02/2019 | Antwerp +0.5 | 10 | 2.529 | +15.29 |
| 02/03/2019 | Sint-Truiden +1.5 | 10 | 1.900 | +9.00 |
| 10/03/2019 | Club Brugge 1H -0.5 | 10 | 2.142 | +11.42 |
| 10/03/2019 | KV Kortrijk +1 | 10 | 1.847 | -10 |
| 10/03/2019 | Waas vs Zulte Over 3.5 | 10 | 2.479 | -10 |
| - | Total | 410 | - | +110.05 |
Total BTC Bets = 41 Total Staked = 0.41 BTC (Flat 0.01 BTC) Profit =+0.11005 BTC ROI =+26.8% ROI
All these bets can be found back in the preview posts and always including the actual betslips. I also always made monthly results pots where they are included (See February Results)
Discord Live Betting Season 2018-2019
I have been posting part of my live bets on the SBC Discord channel most of the season and already made a post on that early this week (Link). These results have also been quite solid and I will continue to go about things in a very similar way.
Total Discord Live Bets = 209 Total Staked = 209 Units (1 unit Flat) Profit =+11.870 Units ROI =+5.68% ROI
The Regular Season is now completely over for me but I will continue during the playoffs tomorrow. Thanks everyone for the continued support on Steemit, Scorum & Discord. I intend to continue bringing this content in a similar way during the 2019-2020 Season.
