After a yearslong slump, China’s real estate market may be set for a turnaround
"An end is in sight for China’s yearslong property market slump, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report distributed Thursday. Residential real estate prices may hit a bottom in the third quarter of 2028, the report said. It added that prices in China’s largest cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, will likely recover as soon as next year. That’s a big shift from February, when S&P said high levels of unsold housing kept “a property market recovery out of reach.”"
--- Oh wow! We reached another bottom. How often did the Chinese real estate market 'bottom out' by now? I lost count. We'll see where this goes, but I have my doubts, because again the analysts rely on government data.
China is offering half measures to its mounting economic problems
"instead of pulling out the big guns to deal with its deep-rooted problems, Beijing has mostly deployed half measures, say economists. It is a sign of how intractable China’s economic difficulties are—and the structural challenges leader Xi Jinping faces in addressing them. In the past month, Beijing has rolled out a steady drip of measures, including mortgage subsidies, fresh capital for state banks and some new infrastructure investment. The piecemeal approach may help China hit its modest growth target for this year, but it is far from enough, say economists."
--- Even the WSJ is more realistic than the above 'analysts', although still relying on official figures.
"Beijing is trying to respond. It just started subsidizing mortgages for first-time buyers to reduce the cost of homeownership, as the country’s epic property crash extends into its sixth year. The central government is directly funding the policy, a decision experts say reflects Beijing’s sense of urgency about bolstering the real-estate market. But the policy has a small scope. The mortgage subsidy of 1 percentage point will run for one year and applies to homes that are less than 120 square meters and valued at less than $223,000. It will only cover 16% of total transactions and 12% of new home sales"
--- & then there is still the question whether this will have any effect on demand at all.
"Xi said the country’s economy has “continued to progress despite mounting pressure” and pledged to “improve people’s livelihoods and meet the targets and tasks set for the year.”"
--- Of course China will meet emperor Xi's targets. It's just a matter of creative accounting.
Gold Slid Over 6% in September and China Bought More of It Than in Any Month Since 2023
"China's central bank added 740,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. The buying came as gold fell over 6%. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lifted its holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million in August. September also marked its 23rd straight month of gold buying. The September addition works out to roughly 23 tonnes."
--- Why does China keep buying gold? Preparation for war?
China's Golden Week: Travel surges, but spending stays soft
"State media, for instance, reported a record-breaking 25.204 million passenger trips on China's railway network on October 1."
--- Another record broken. What a surprise. But even the official numbers can't hide the ugly truth:
"However, early data indicated more moderate spending per traveler and broadly flat passenger traffic, according to Citigroup analysts. Traffic volume during the first four days of the holiday rose just 0.1% year over year It isn't the first Golden Week to see weak consumer demand. During last year's holiday season, the average spending per trip was 911.04 yuan (around €121), the lowest in three years, according to Reuters. [...] "Beijing still believes the low spending was due to consumers' reluctance [to spend]," Wang said. "In fact, we think Chinese consumers are unable to spend." While savings kept increasing in Chinese banks, Wang said the vast majority of the savings are held by a small proportion of the population. "In other words, the majority of Chinese people don't have savings." "The fundamental issue is the wealth gap in Chinese society," he said. "I don't know whether Beijing really neglected this problem or was simply unwilling to face it.""
--- Emperor Xi doesn't really care, as long as the GDP numbers are fine. & they will stay fine, because they are CCP-generated.
Trading platform Webull’s China ties create national security risk, congressional panel finds; stock drops 18%
"The bipartisan House Select Committee on China in its new report being released Wednesday found “a profound gap” between Webull’s public marketing as “an American company” and actual control of the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm. “Webull’s ownership architecture, technical workforce, technology infrastructure, cross-border data routing, corporate financing, and compliance frameworks are tied in structural ways to the People’s Republic of China,”"
--- & that's not the only company with such ownership structures. With more intense scrutiny, we will probably see a lot more revelations.
China rejects EU request for voluntary curbs on hybrid car exports as trade talks begin in Beijing
"The development comes as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič travels to Beijing for two days of talks with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao."
--- I guess, we can consider this a signal of Chinese intentions.
"The EU's initial approach was to seek a negotiated solution rather than immediately impose new trade restrictions."
--- When will they ever understand that negotiations with China only work from a position of strength?
France, Germany push for EU rapid-response trade tool with likely focus on China
"German officials said the EU needed a tool as powerful as the Section 301 tariffs imposed by the United States or China's restrictions on exports of critical minerals in a new world where trade is increasingly used as a weapon. The bloc, said the document, needs to deploy its trade defence tools more swiftly and efficiently, with more investigations and a broader approach to cover whole sectors. The document added that there was an urgent need for measures to deal with imports of chemicals, PET and hybrid vehicles."
--- Pretty late urgency, but at least something is moving. Particularly quite a number of MEP's seem to be intent on becoming active against China: MEPs urge tougher action against China as tensions hit ‘critical point’
Report says German ex-spy chief suspected of passing secrets to China
"Spiegel claimed that the suspected foreign contact is Wang Jianzheng, a retired Chinese major general and diplomat with ties to Hanning. Wang served at China's mission in East Berlin from 1987 to 1990 and later returned to Germany, most recently as military attache until 2013. He is regarded as one of Beijing's leading experts on Germany. Hanning made several visits to China after his retirement, Spiegel reported. In 2017, he and Wang apparently met at an official reception in the eastern Chinese city of Huaibei. A city record says the talks covered cooperation and economic development, and that the two jointly visited local companies."
--- The German secret services showing their competence again. A former spy chief visiting China should already let all the alarm bells go off, but attending official receptions?
The Strategic Implications of China's Military Facility in Laos
US slows aircraft-part exports to China as Trump seeks leverage in trade negotiations
China’s Propaganda Trap for Diaspora Tibetans
Thailand opens extradition process for reporter sought by China
China militia boat spotted for first time off Taiwan's east coast
--- China Uncensored: "Sometimes, this job is so sweet"
Vor der Automesse in Paris: Jetzt wollen auch die Autokonzerne vor China beschützt werden
"VW, Renault und der italienisch-französische Stellantis-Konzern haben sich an die Spitze der Bewegung gesetzt. In einer gemeinsamen Stellungnahme zu Verhandlungen im Europäischen Parlament schreiben die drei Hersteller, die „Made in EU“-Regeln seien zwar kein „Silver Bullet“, also kein Allheilmittel, aber „ein wichtiger Baustein für eine erfolgreiche industrielle Gesamtstrategie der EU in einem sich wandelnden geopolitischen Umfeld“. Auch Zulieferer wie der deutsche Branchenprimus Bosch stützen den Kurs, und sogar BMW und Mercedes, die einst wenig bis nichts mit den Regularien anfangen konnten, sollen sich den anderen Herstellern angenähert haben, ist in der Branche zu hören."
--- Jahrzehntelang hat man die eigene Konkurrenz großgemacht. Jetzt beginnt man zu bluten & man schreit nach Mama. (Naja, selbst blutend wollen einige nicht einsehen, was sie selber angerichtet haben.)
"Auf französischer Seite ist man um Klarstellung bemüht, dass die Quoten für lokale Produktion proeuropäisch, nicht antichinesisch gemeint seien."
--- & ewig spricht die Angst.
s.a.: Deutschland und Frankreich wollen neues EU-Handelsinstrument gegen China
Hohe Erwartungen an Sefcovic
"Der Vorstoß Deutschlands und Frankreichs, die EU zu befähigen, mit Schutzinstrumenten härter gegen aus ihrer Sicht unfaire Handelspraktiken vorzugehen, kam bei der Führung in Peking nicht gut an. China werde entschlossen reagieren, sollte die EU chinesische Unternehmen auf dem europäischen Markt diskriminieren wollen, so eine schriftliche Mitteilung des Handelsministeriums."
--- & dann hat man auch gleich mal eine freiwillige Begrenzung der Ausfuhr von Hybridautos abgelehnt. Deutliches Signal für den Besuch.
