So officially, 2026, looks like the worst year to be in crypto since 2013, and this isn't even because of prices alone. For context, even in years that BTC always bottoms and even during the FTX crash in 2022, the market hasn't looked so uncertain.
The biggest selling trends are currently meme coin trading or launching and rugging crypto on places like pumpfun, while this is usually normal for a bear market year, the market just feels drab.
Also, there was a crash that happens a few days back, and it affected stocks too, a lot of people noticed a crash to their stock asset, and it was simultaneous with the dump we've been seeing with crypto in the past few days.
So, basically the latest dumps hasn't been a crypto thing alone, but the fact still remains that it added salt to the injury of the situation of the market.
So BTC dipped to 75k, and there's still no guarantee that the market dump is over. At the moment we're not just looking at price based on the market metrics alone, we're looking at price based on whatever is happening, which is currently not looking like a crypto market situation thingy.
For example the dump we saw in June and July were really justifiable, because the market was expected to dump, but the unexpected dump is looking strange, considering the fact that October was a red month for crypto and November is looking red, (although it's the seventh day and there's still a lot of room for a turnaround) and having a consecutive red even though we look to be away from the danger zone (the bottom) is another strange sign that the dump is unexpected and not looking normal.
However, as I said, plenty of time to still turn things around. Personally I felt November might get back some of those gains that was lost in October, simply because it makes sense to.
I also didn't think we're going to be in the red, while preparing to get into the year of consolidation, and that was why I felt November and December was supposed to be good and BTC might even hit 90k, by the end of the year.
This isn't still over, there's plenty of time for this to happen, but this is a big reminder that the market can come up with whatever surprises, with either pumps or dumps regardless of how the playbook is supposed to go by.
So, this is another thing I'll always consider in my price analysis. Dumps or irrational pumps can happen anywhere and anytime irrespective of how the market is poised, and this is also something to always consider when we're considering the trajectory of the market.
However, BTC still looks very healthy at this point, even though it's at 75k. I think the effect on alts is what exactly makes it look really bad, and considering the fact that BTC is mostly held by big corporations and possibly a few BTC maxis (for the tech, and for a potential x10 in 12 years time) I think this just spells the situation of the market.
Conclusion...
At the end of the day, sentiment is always horrible when BTC dumps, not because a lot of people are holding it, but because it just looks like over 80% of people are into alts which exactly is how you can make money.
BTC has always been about security though, more than profit, and if profit was as good as one BTC like it's with alts when they're pumping, then 90% of alt projects will not survive since all the money and all the protection is actually there when you just buy and hodl BTC.
Back to the sentiments and dumps, I think this will take it's time, and probably the sentiments will start shifting again when the year is over I believe.
In August, prices were decent, and looking like a massive recovery, but fast-forward to November, we can no longer say the same, because the sentiment shifted a little. Think it's going to be really difficult in January, and we'd only need to wait a little time.
