So, BTC pulled the most shocking dump on the 30th of October 2026, right when I predicted that it was going to stay above 78k for the remainder of the month, and guess what?
The Binance hack happens at midnight. I remember also saying there has to be a swan event for BTC to literally drop out of that zone, and honestly, I was so right. That swan event was an exchange getting hacked.
It's honestly crazy, but I guess this is what the market is all about. One moment, it looks done and dusted, and the other moment, something unexpected literally happens. Let me quickly make a detour.
A couple of weeks back I was talking to someone about the price of alts and how the pattern looks, only for him to remind me that the market still pulls unexpected crazy pumps even when it feels bearish and the market can be unexpectedly bearish, especially when sentiments is bullish, and vice versa, and for someone who has has seen the highs and lows, I think he was right on that one.
The general market reaction is bearish towards the upcoming run and this makes it primed for a surprise, unlike what he actually had in the previous run where the market looked really good or primed for the most mind-bending pump ever, and I think I agree to that, now let me go back a bit to the unexpected dump.
This isn't the first time we're seeing a black swan even in crypto, it literally comes at the time when you least expect it to happen, and most of the time, it just happens anyway, and that's the beauty and unexpectedness that comes with crypto.
For example I've pretty much written off a possible unbelievable life-changing pump, and this isn't a focus on BTC or alts, it's just my opinion on the entire crypto market and the reason is because the trajectory of crypto has changed, except you're a trenches trader or a degenerate gambler, then it's honestly impossible these days to trust in the market cycles to change your life.....,
and while this is a statement based on the realistic trajectory of the crypto market, it's also not a defined opinion because the market is primed to be very unpredictable even though you might still see a bit of what you've predicted, or at least a little of it.
The market is still highly unstable, which is why you should mostly treated it as a model of entertainment and not certainty. The result of the Binance hack has dumped the prices of alts that were already in recovery mode and looked primed for 2027 which of course was (of course it's still in motion) going to be a year of consolidation.
However, I'm also happy that the pump didn't deal that much of a devastating blow to the market. If we remember correctly how FTX crashed in 2022, and how there was a 30% dump in the Price of crypto, which eventually hastened the bear market of 2022.
However the difference here is that Binance has injected billions of dollars to replace the hacked funds, so whether they took the money from their real life Dollar reserves (which we don't know) the idea I have is that we didn't dump to eternity because of the funds that Binance injected back into the market , but we'll see.
BTC still not looking bad
BTC still looks ridiculously dogged at 77k, and has recently crept back to the 79k range, which is still in the red zone, since 80, 81k was supposed to be the consolidation range.
It's been a ride, but it's safe to say the scare is almost over, and we have finally bottomed, because I'm thinking, what's going to be more horrible than a 6, BILLION DOLLARS HACK happening to binance? Well how about a 500 million dollars hack the bybit, and they don't have the reserves to actually pay back?
Well that's a possibility and maybe this can dump the market to the 60k range, but considering the fact that the Lazarus group only hacked them 5 months ago, it's probably not going to happen.
I'm not ruling out any black swan event happening again, it might not necessarily be an exchange hack, but even 2027 that's supposed to be a consolidation year, there's still possibilities of serious dumps, nor because the market is still in that red zone anymore, but because there's a likelihood that black swan events aren't over.
Hopefully we don't see a lot of them in 2027, and even the the year after that.
