Deaths will outstrip the number of births by the mid 2060s, according to a major report mapping out Australia’s economic future over the next 40 years
This is the first line of an article I was reading while sitting getting my infusion treatment at the hospital. It is a forecast of the future and I call bullshit on it. The reason is that while the forecast might be accurate based on the available information, that information is unable to predict the future in terms of technology and culture changes.
The birth rate has been declining for decades already, but around 2010 it was starting to round and flatten out. But since 2016, it has been rapidly declining again and in 2024 the global level sat at 2.2, which is slightly above replacement level. But I predict it is going to get much worse in the coming years, based on who is having children and in the developed world, it is going to crater even faster, further.
The average age of women having children has been increasing and sits now between 29-33 in developed nations. That puts the 2016 kids born to parents around 1980. My own daughter was born in 2016 and I am the last of Gen-X born in 1979. That means that since, it has been Millennials having children on average. But it is 10 years since then, which means right now it is the start of the time where Gen-Z would have children, but the difference between the upbringing and culture of Millennials compared to that of Gen-Z, is quite stark.
The oldest Gen-Zers are now around 29 years of age after being born in 1997, but they are a generation that has never known a fully analogue life. They have grown up post-internet introduction and social media was well and truly making a cultural impact by the time they hit their teens. This is going to heavily affect their mindset and decisions throughout their lives, and children are likely not very high on their agenda, because they encroach on their belief that they are entitled to do what they want, when they want, how they want, and children cramp that style. Yes, there is an affordability of children conversation to be had too, but most of it is just excuse.
On a global scale, essentially all nations on earth are experiencing long-term downtrends in birth rate, which is going to become more pronounced in the near future. However, it is also good to look at birth rates between financial demographics globally, because it tells an interesting and increasingly relevant story.
For most countries, the answer to a falling birth rate is immigration, which is done for several reasons that I have spoken of many times before. For instance, in an aging population that requires care, people are needed to provide support for both work roles and economic addition to keep the pension systems running. A reducing workforce means there is a point that the very much outdated pension systems collapse. But I think one of the core reasons for immigration is to keep the values of properties up, because that is where most people hold their wealth. If there is reducing demand on housing, a whole host of knock-on effects happen for country finances, not to mention a very disgruntled home ownership population.
But look again at the table above and recognise the problem. There are no numbers of people there, but we can extrapolate and assume a few factors. For instance, high income would be the top 10% of any particular population relative to local conditions, but that bracket is well below replacement rate. Upper middle income is also well below replacement, and middle income only just scrapes in. However, people on average are getting relatively poorer as the rich get richer, and that means that the bottom half distributed by wealth is both growing in number, and is also the only group above replacement level. Even the lower middle income is only just above replacement, and that will likely drop below in the next decade or so. Which leaves the low income bracket at 4.5 the only really viable growth sector.
So, while immigration might be the key to growing a population, it should be recognised that increasingly, it will be the group from low incomes who will be able to make the move. That sets up a lot of dynamic conditions that will drive even more cultural change and create an increasing amount of challenging issues - many of which we can already see happening around the world in the last few decades, and especially now with the increasing rise of far-right, anti-immigration groups.
While averages shouldn't be used to judge an individual, they are useful in predicting behaviours of large groups, and we can make some assumptions about how people will act, depending on the average actions of people like them. Or, people like me. We can assume for instance that people who grow up in a poor environment and struggling financially, are more likely to have a scarcity mindset. It doesn't matter if they move to an area where there is more availability and more money, that mindset persists. It is not that it can't change, but change takes effort, action, and time - and it will likely still always be a struggle.
Moving to a different country doesn't automatically wipe clean the slate of the past. Which again, we can see in many areas where immigrants are unable to adapt to a new culture, new systems, new rules. And of course, it isn't just the immigrants themselves creating the problems, because the locals also are unwilling to adapt to a changing environment, expecting the benefits of immigration, without having to change themselves or find compromises. The onus is put on the immigrant, but if the environment is largely hostile, they are going to struggle to make a positive impact and are more likely to cause negative implications on average. Again, individuals shouldn't be evaluated on the curve, but the curve still has an impact on individuals.
but as I was saying at the start, these population predictions shouldn't be relied upon at all and the assumption should be made that the fall away will be much faster than predicted. Mostly as I see it right now, this will be for the reason mentioned with the change in generational culture and mindset around life in general, but the larger and faster impact is likely to be technological. As automation technology keeps speeding up and innovating itself, it is going to both further negatively affect the birth rate, but also continue filling the roles of humans up the skill chain, until very few people are employable. This can gap-fill the roles for example to take care of the growing elderly populations, but it doesn't inspire an increase in births.
It does reduce the need for work-based immigration.
But, robots don't need homes to live in, nor do AIs need retirement funds (yet) set up for their old age. They live and die without needing to be "taken care of" in the same way as a human, and therefore become the preferred producer for the economy, even though it completely breaks the economic model (which was already very broken) that has kept humanity ticking over. We won't be needed as producers or innovators, nor will we be needed as social engines to create communities, because we ourselves will have isolated from others in order to get fed what we want, when we want it. And what we want, won't be children.
And as the data suggests, the global population will continue to grow because of the birth rate of the poorest, which is also a large and growing group. However, that means by the time that forecast comes to term in 2060, the vast majority of the global population will be the generations born to the poorest demographics and into an environment with decreasing opportunity to ply human skill.
What does that 2060 world look like?
Lots of global discussions need to change, but perhaps we should also look at the immigration conversation also. Perhaps we do need immigration, but if someone was to want what is best for their particular country, they wouldn't just have to look at who is coming in, but also what kind of environment those people are coming into. Is it a place where the average person can succeed, or a place where on the elite are able to generate success? Because like it or not, a population is affected by averages, whether it be health, wealth, or opportunity.
I will likely be dead before 2060 come around, but I am hoping that my daughter will have a life filled with positive opportunity to excel at making a life she considers valuable and worthwhile. Currently, we are destroying the physical environment, the financial environment, the social environment and the human environment that are needed for a good life.
We aren't good at predicting the future.
We are good at destroying it.
Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]
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