A week to step back a bit and take a more strategic view on gold and silver mining ahead of dollar debasement risk
Portfolio News
In a week where S&P 500 rose 0.11% and Europe dropped 0.59%, my pension portfolio dropped 0.07% - not far out of line. Two biggish drags on ASX - Northern Star Resources (NST.AX) down 6.5% and BHP Group (BHP.AX) down 7.5%.
Big movers of the week were ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) (77.6%), Cascadia Minerals (CAM.V) (32.8%), Coronado Global Resources (CRN.AX) (31.6%), Iondrive (ION.AX) (30.8%), Elixir Energy (EXR.AX) (27.4%), AXP Energy (AXP.AX) (25%), Silver Crown Royalties (SCRI.NE) (22.3%), Delivra Health Brands (DHB.V) (20%), New Frontier Minerals (NFM.AX) (20%), Denarius Metals Corp (DMET.NE) (18.8%), Mirion Technologies (MIR) (17.6%), Hercules Metals Corp (BIG.V) (17.5%), Austral Resources Australia (AR1.AX) (14.3%), Stanmore Resources (SMR.AX) (13.9%), Geiger Energy Corporation (BEEP.V) (13.2%) Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.V) (12.6%), Lodestar Minerals (LSR.AX) (12.5%), Power Solutions International (PSIX) (11.6%), Stroud Resources (SDR.V) (11.1%), Australian Mines (AUZ.AX) (10%), Zinc of Ireland (ZMI.AX) (10%)
A seemingly short list of 21 stocks making the big movers list. From the top: alternate energy (2 stocks), rare earths (3 stocks), silver/gold mining (6 stocks), marijuana (1 stock), uranium/nuclear (2 stocks). A few coal mining and oil stocks.
US markets were in drift mode - chips, the war, yields and then a strong job report sank the nerves - maybe a rate hike kind of nerves.
Another month slides by - time to report on rolling one year performance. Pension portfolio has got back to better than par with S&P500 after a few down weeks.
And personal portfolio is more than double - must be getting something right.
Crypto stabilizes
Bitcoin price pushed higher and then sideways finishing the week 1.5% higher than the open with a trough to peak range of 7.9% - safely between support and resistance
Ethereum price did much the same finishing the week 2.8% higher than the open with a trough to peak range of 8.2%.
A bunch of altcoins got a pop - almost like people are migrating away from fiat currency - early days but not seen 20% pops in a week for some months.
Binance Coin (BNBUSD) got some buyers with a 15% pop
Arweave (ARBTC) does 50%
Polkadot (DOTUSDT) does 28%
Chainlink (LINKUSDT) does 25%
Uniswap (UNIUSDT) does 60% - seems there are moves afoot in the underworld of cryptocurrency - maybe they are all deserting the US Dollar.
Even Hive (HIVEUSD) gets a 31% pop.
Nuclear Energy Holdings
Only auto-invest additions on ASX and a 0.7% drop in valuations
Mix of holdings sees NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) and enCore Energy (EU) swap places in slots 7 and 8. Share of portfolios drops 0.4 points to 28.4%.
Holdings by stage changes are small apart from Technology which goes up just under a point to 16.1%
Alternate Energy Holdings
No changes in holdings but a massive 12.4% jump in valuations - down to one stock ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) jumping 77% on the week. Too bad covered calls will see some of the opportunity lost.
Mix of holdings sees a huge jump of just over 11 points in ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) in slot 1. Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and PLS Group (PLS.AX) swap places in slots 8 and 9. Share of portfolios jumps 0.8 points to 7.8%
Precious Metals Holdings
A few additions mostly in gold with two in silver and a 0.7% increase in valuations.
Mix of holdings sees Hercules Metals (BIG.V) come back into Top 10 in slot 10 and First Majestic Silver (AG) drops out. Number of Others goes up 4. Share of portfolios edges up to 10.7%.
Bought
**Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX): Gold Mining. With price opening at $12.97 (Aug 31) put in place a April 2027/September 2026 expiry 17.5/22.5/12.5 call spread risk reversal. This offers maximum profit potential of 714% for 82.5% price move. The sold put (12.5) fully funds the call spread premium with 3.8% price coverage - the sold put is for September 2026 expiry (3 weeks)
Let's look at the chart which shows the bought call (17.5) as the top blue ray and the sold call (22.5) as a red ray and the sold put (12.5) as a dotted red ray with the expiry dates the dotted green lines on the left and on the right margin. Get a repeat of the zigzag price scenario and this trade will almost reach the maximum. The key is for price to stay above the sold put (12.5) for the 3 weeks to expiry - one done. That level is not below the previous low - there is some risk there.
Centauri Minerals (CENT.V): Silver Mining. Received allocation from the spin-off of Argentinian assets of Aldebaran (ALDE.V) in this newly listed venture. Scaled up size of holding in pension portfolio
Centauri holds 100%-interest in a portfolio of six exploration projects spanning approximately 40,000 hectares in the provinces of Salta, Jujuy, and Catamarca. The most advanced is the Rio Grande gold-copper project located in Salta, which has an independent NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate that highlights significant gold, copper, and silver quantities.
Rio Grande hosts a sizeable mineral inventory of 3 Moz Au, 1.773 billion lbs Cu, & 30 Moz Ag (1). No drilling since 2013, new drilling permit approved in 2026 to test significant porphyry potential
Tasmea (TEA.AX): Mining Services. STP published report on earnings - forward guidance had them reiterating their hold. Added back a parcel in personal portfolio at 25 discount to last exit price. Just made the 45 day CGT rule days.
Australian Mines (AUZ.AX): Rare Earths. 2nd pending order on Next Investors idea hit in personal portfolio at 10% lower price than initial entry. Takes out the front running premium. See TIB824 for the rationale
Pantoro Ltd (PNR.AX): Gold Mining. Got signal in ASX portfolio screen - decided to add a larger parcel in personal portfolio. There is a lesson in resource investing and trading right here. This is what was written at the last exit - see TIB685 https://mclnks.com/tib685
35.7% blended profit since July/October/November 2023. Plan to scale in after the price dump and exit at a profit worked. Note the exit was above the broker target and price has since dropped below that.
Now look at the chart for the new entry and what happened between exit and entry. The trader exits at 37.5% profit (the target for the trading strategy at the time) and the investor had the option of exiting 606% higher or even 208% higher if still holding. Chart shows price has made the reversal and latest resource estimates point to 200k ounces annual production and resource of 4.6 million ounces - comfortably above cutoffs.
Fredonia Mining (FRED.V): Gold Mining. Read a tweet highlighting relative undervaluation for this stock. Added a parcel in pension portfolio.
Fredonia Mining operates as a mining extraction company in Argentina. It primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. The company's flagship property is the El Dorado-Monserrat Project that consists of various license blocks covering approximately 33,500 hectares located in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina.
RTX Corporation (RTX): Aerospace/Defense. Assigned early on sold put in pension portfolio. Breakeven $213.42 vs $202.13 close (Sep 3) - work to do. Idea from a friend well versed in defense matters. Wrote covered call for 0.3% of breakeven premium with 5.1% price coverage.
Did some detailed work on ChatGPT analysing gold and silver mining stocks to collate data about production levels and potential production over the next few years. Starting point was stocks already held across the portfolios. Am really interested in the developers getting close to production
From ChatGPT:
For this pass I found five holdings with sufficiently credible economic studies to warrant production treatment now:
Chose to add small holding in pension portfolio for each - around C$1500 each holding. The table suggests these are all below the 2 million ounces but they all have AISC under $1400 - with a gold price assumption at $4400 or more, these will become cash flow generators and acquisition targets.
Gold X2 Mining (AUXX.V): Gold Mining.
Gold X2 Mining Inc., engages in the exploration and development of gold and metal mineral properties in Canada. It holds 100% in the Moss Gold Project located in Ontario, Canada.
Fortune Bay Corp (FOR.V): Gold Mining.
Fortune Bay Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Canada and Mexico. The company's flagship asset is the Goldfields Gold Project located approximately 13 kilometres south of Uranium City, Saskatchewan.
NeXGold Mining Corp (NEXG.V): Gold Mining.
The company's flagship asset is the 100%-owned Goliath Gold Complex, an advanced stage high-grade gold deposit near Dryden, Ontario, which includes the Goliath, Goldlund, and Miller projects.
Radisson Mining Resources (RDS.V): Gold Mining.
The company focuses on its 100% owned O'Brien Gold project that comprises 147 mineral claims covering an area of 7,426 hectares located in the Abitibi region in northwestern Québec. It also holds 100% interest in the Douay project that consists of 30 mineral claims covering an area of 1,606 hectares located in the James Bay territory, Québec.
U.S. Gold Corp (USAU): Gold Mining.
The company's flagship property is its 100% owned CK gold project, which consists of various mining leases and other mineral rights covering an area of approximately 1,120 acres located in Laramie County, Wyoming.
The analysis for silver mining went a slightly different way - first thing is to work on AgEq as every mine has a mix of resources they can produce in addition to silver. The metric that started to make sense was Enterprise Value per LOM ounce. This gives a very wide range of current values relative to LOM ounces - the lower the ratio the better. No doubt I misunderstood the rankings around midnight - this one has the highest EV/LOM Oz - hence the most highly valued may not have the best distance to run.
New Pacific Metals Corp (NEWP): Silver Mining.
Its flagship property is the 100% owned Silver Sand property, which covers an area of 5.42 square kilometers located in the Potosí Department, in Southwestern Bolivia
Note: Bought US listing - better liquidity than Canada listing NUAG.V
Sold
No sales
Put Funded LEAPs
- Sold Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 455 strike September 4, 2026 put option - 1 contract at $4.89 = $466.92 premium. Return 1.07% Coverage 2.5%. Bought back before expiry reducing return to 1.03%. As it happens price ended above sold strike - could have let it expire.
- Bought Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) 27 strike March 2027 call options - 1 contract at $3.90 = $391.04 premium. This is as far out in time as options are listed.
Chart for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) suggests choosing a higher strike for the sold put - 455 vs 450 - was possibly a bit tight. Maybe the smarter play is to be below the low of the previous week - that would have been at 450 again. Inset in the chart is why AMD was chosen - the sector is hot and AMD has dropped 28% since June 2026 - would be good run if stock did get assigned.
The options chains show that selling 450 strike would have generated enough premium to cover the LEAP - $516 to be precise. Do like using stocks like AMD as implied volatility is way above the S&P Futures.
Now to the chart for the LEAP on Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) - needs a blue arrow price scenario to go open-ended in the money. Two drives like the ones from August 2026 and Q1 of 2026 would be neat.
Started to track the LEAPs in a spreadsheet.
Table has stock, strike, trade price and latest price. First required move column is the difference between strike and trade price. Key columns are on the right - breakeven (calculated using all the premium from the sold put - i.e., no carryover of unused premium) and the required move to reach breakeven.
ASX Portfolio
The segment reports trading in ASX fractional share portfolio. Trade entries are made based on stock screens looking for undervalued stocks (price to book, price earnings, price to sales) that are showing technical signs of breaking a downtrend. Exits are made at 35% profit or 25% if 52 week high is lower than 35% advance. New buys are in $500 lots. Scale ins and top ups in $250 lots
Top Ups
Graincorp (GNC.AX): Food. Dividend yield 4.09%.
Chart shows price breaking downtrend and reversing off support twice - some way to go to reach breakeven. People need food but diesel and fertilizer prices are a drag.
Sold
Time to clean ship to release capital for the next cycle of auto-invests and for new ideas. Started from the bottom.
Cettire Ltd (CTT.AX): Retail. 79% blended loss since October 2024/September 2025.
KMD Brands Limited (KMD.AX): Retail. 87.8% blended loss since November 2022/January/February/November 2023/ August 2024/September 2025.
G8 Education (GEM.AX): Childcare. 88.8% blended loss since December 2022/April/August 2023/ June 2024
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ.AX): Aviation Services.76% loss since January 2025
Started this portfolio in late 2022 as a trading strategy - ASX stocks - with a view to test an idea. Time to review outcomes
- Short term gains - less than 12 months: Profits of 30.4% of capital deployed
- Long term gains - more than 12 months: Profits of 6.1% of capital deployed
- Ratio of short term vs long term - 87.8% vs 12.2% That qualifies this as a short term strategy
Shorts
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): US Treasuries. With yields rising took the next step in positioning. With price opening at $81.89 bought a December expiry 81 strike put option in pension portfolio.
Chart shows price has been on the slide as yields edge up. The inset describes the relationship between yield change (100 bp is one whole percent) and the price move - the red arrow maps a 100 bp move up in yields and is on a steep angle from history. The more gentle light blue arrow from history feels more likely.
Cryptocurrency
ZCash (ZECUSDT): Pending order hit for 50% profit target since May 2026.
Chart shows a fair bit left on the table.
Income Trades
Covered Calls
Seven covered calls written across 3 portfolios (Europe 1 US 6)
Naked Puts
Sold puts happy to own at lower prices
- Denison Mines (DNN): Uranium. Return 1.7% Coverage 9.7%
Sold puts to lever up call spread or risk reversal - a diagonal in this case.
- Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX): Gold Mining. Return 5.7% Coverage -1.4%
Sold puts on stocks that might get assigned on covered calls
- Walmart (WMT): US Retail. Return 1.1% Coverage 1.1%
- Canopy Growth Corporation (WEED.TO): Marijuana. Return 2.2% Coverage 11.2%
Credit Spreads
No change
Resources
Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work
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August 31 - September 4, 2026
